In a significant shift in its nuclear defense strategy, France is set to bolster its nuclear arsenal and extend its deterrence capabilities to European allies. This move, announced by President Emmanuel Macron, marks a major development in the country's nuclear defense policy, which has been described as the most significant change in French strategic thinking since 1960. Macron's speech in Brittany outlined the changes, citing an increasingly unstable strategic environment as the reason. He emphasized that the next 50 years will be an era of nuclear weapons, and as a response, France will increase the number of its nuclear warheads from around 300 to an unspecified higher figure. Additionally, he announced the launch of a new nuclear-armed submarine, The Invincible, scheduled for 2036.
The 'advanced deterrence' strategy involves eight European countries - the UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark - participating in France's air-launched nuclear capacity exercises and hosting air bases for France's nuclear bombers. This move is seen as a way to spread France's Strategic Air Forces across the European continent, complicating the calculations of adversaries. Macron also mentioned that France's partners will share in the development of 'auxiliary' capacities, including space-based alarm systems, air defense, long-range missiles, and more.
While 'advanced deterrence' retains the original concept defined by Charles de Gaulle, it does not provide explicit guarantees to partner countries. The decision-making power over when to fire a nuclear missile remains with the French President. The aim is to convince potential adversaries that an attack on France will have severe consequences. Macron also stated that France will no longer communicate the number of nuclear warheads it possesses, adding a layer of secrecy to its nuclear strategy. This move comes after France and Germany jointly announced plans for closer cooperation in nuclear deterrence, with Germany participating in French nuclear exercises and developing conventional capacities with European partners. The cooperation aims to complement, not replace, NATO's nuclear deterrent.
